The possibility of two new political parties could be making things tough for the Sask. Party.
The Buffalo Party and the Saskatchewan United Party could become new opponents in the next provincial election.
Tom McIntosh, a professor of politics and international studies at the University of Regina, said that the impact the parties make is dependent on where they focus.
“If their support is in mostly rural Saskatchewan, it may take a bit of the bite out the Sask Party vote, but it probably won’t threaten any Sask. Party seats,” he said. “If you are winning by 65 or 70 per cent of the vote, you can afford to lose 10 or 15 per cent of the vote and still win the riding.”
“If they could get 10 or 15 per cent in urban ridings or in some of the smaller urban centres, it could cost the Sask. Party seats, but that would most likely those seats go to the NDP.”
With the possibility of the ride-side getting a little more crowded, McIntosh points out two recent examples in Alberta and British Columbia, where the vote split, leading to new leaders.
“Rachel Notley won her election when the vote on the right was split between the old Progressive Conservative and Wildrose Party. Jason Kenney brings those two together and knocks Notley out after a single term,” he explained. “In B.C., the Liberal Party began to fracture, you saw the beginning of the new small Conversation Party and shook enough of their votes that the NDP first won a minority government, and they turned into a coalition with the Green Party and then a majority on there own in the last election.”
He noted that this is one of the challenges when you have parties with similar agendas.
McIntosh said that the Sask. The Party probably isn’t too worried but is paying attention to what’s going on as life could become more difficult.
“If the NDP can put somebody in charge who can motivate their base and bring that base back together maybe attack some of those disaffected, more moderate parts of the Sask Party, then that becomes a much more interesting dynamic for the Sask. Party,” he said. “They might have a more dynamic, more vocal NDP on their left and then a more vocal, growing movement on their right. They are going to have to pay very clear attention to redefining themselves as the kind of centre-right, more moderate party that Brad Wall won his elections on.”
McIntosh added that this depends on whether the Buffalo Party can run in more ridings and if the Saskatchewan United Party can become official.
